Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week with a rare thwarting for its Q4 balderdash run — failing to crack previous back up.

After a promising weekend, BTC/USD ultimately saw rejection at $60,000 twice and has since headed below $57,000 as market momentum wanes.

The stakes are high: Some believe that sky-high Bitcoin price targets tin withal be met by the end of the calendar month, while others believe that this bull marketplace volition accept longer to play out than previous ones.

With November looking ever more than probable to break with tradition and underdeliver — both compared to recent months and old bull market years — traders and analysts are gearing up for a nerve-racking simply potentially interesting monthly shut.

Cointelegraph takes a look at 5 factors that could shape BTC price action in the concluding week of a uniquely stressful "Moonvember."

$60,000 flips to resistance

For about of the weekend, the mood among analysts was simple: "It could be worse."

After hitting five-week lows of $55,650, BTC/USD managed to claw back some of its losses, and on Saturday, it even "gapped higher" to take a swing at $60,000.

This was ultimately unsuccessful, but Sunday saw a further attempt, with Bitcoin enjoying a few brief minutes in the $sixty,000 range before a business firm rejection sent the market tumbling once again.

At the time of writing Monday, $57,000 is forming a focus, with the clear impetus that what was once solid support has flipped to resistance.

Popular trader Pentoshi summarized the mood, reiterating his want for $61,000 to be reclaimed as support for bullish continuation.

November 2022 has so far delivered negative returns of -half-dozen.5% for hodlers, making it i of just iii such Novembers in Bitcoin'due south history non to produce gains.

As Cointelegraph reported, other years have seen transformative price action, non least of all 2022, when BTC/USD climbed about 43% in November.

Sunday'south downturn nonetheless did manage to fill the latest CME futures gap created on Friday, something which has over again become a characteristic of spot cost action this calendar month.

For fellow trader and annotator Crypto Ed, this is what needed to happen to increase the odds of fresh upside returning in the new calendar week.

"Waiting for another leg downward to fill CME this evening and up from there over again the coming days," he said in function of Twitter comments Dominicus.

CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle nautical chart showing gap. Source: TradingView

Uncanny resemblances

For all the frustration of a Bitcoin correction just when it is to the lowest degree welcome, not everyone is surprised — or worried.

Brusque timeframes tin can paint a completely different picture show of market health to longer ones, and information technology is these that commentators are eyeing to back up an indelible bull thesis this week.

"If in doubt, zoom out" — compared to its functioning in its two previous years after block subsidy halvings, Bitcoin remains right on track.

"Remarkably similar corrective structures and then far on the BTC 8H," annotator TechDev confirmed Sunday.

"Nigh to the day iv years apart. 2022 continues to run five–8 days behind 2022 since July."

TechDev referred to data showing that non only has Bitcoin repeated its 2022 performance this yr only also practically copied the timeframes for each stage of its bull market.

Should this continue, the predicted accident-off top stage should too appear — except this time, an order of magnitude higher than 2022's $20,000.

BTC/USD annotated nautical chart comparing with RSI highlighted. Source: TechDev/Twitter

A nautical chart further shows how Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) is copy-pasting its 2022 performance in November in item.

Typically, bull bicycle tops are accompanied by an RSI reading of 90 or more than, this far from the current reading on lower timeframes.

Funding rises on $60,000 rematch

Despite losing the battle for $60,000, the process of trying to exit lower levels has had an unwelcome bear on on derivatives markets, where traders are increasing leverage over again.

Later on being effectively "reset" to neutral during concluding calendar week's lows, funding rates are on the move again.

Existence overly positive, every bit is the example on Bybit, OKEx and others at the fourth dimension of writing, suggests a bullish bias — the expectation that farther gains are on the cards.

This tin often have undesirable results, as a price downturn begins to unravel large numbers of positions, the snowball effect driving prices down even more.

So far, liquidations remain muted, however — $seventy 1000000 for Bitcoin and $219 million beyond crypto markets over the past 24 hours.

"Thining liquidations and then question is which side of the marketplace gets ran this calendar week," blogger 52kskew summarized on Twitter Monday, noting what happened on the retest of $60,000.

Open interest on Bitcoin futures, meanwhile, has yet to beat out all-time highs set before the dip on Nov. 10.

The dollar is the star of the testify

On macro markets, nervousness over coronavirus measures — and the protests in response to them — continue to present a mixed bag.

With inflation already firmly on the radar, talk is now turning to the United States Federal Reserve increasing the pace of its nugget buy tapering next month.

"If that thought gets out there and is repeatedly underscored, that will increment the probability that the tapering that'south appear in Dec will be quicker than the pace that was announced early in November," Jason Schenker, president and chief economist at forecaster Prestige Economic science, told Bloomberg.

Stealing the limelight this calendar week, however, is the U.S. dollar.

The greenback has beaten longstanding resistance this month to reach its strongest since July 2022, according to the U.S. dollar currency alphabetize (DXY).

Typically, pronounced DXY gains have the opposite event on Bitcoin, which struggles during such periods. November has been no exception equally DXY swaps grind for surge and have held a reading of 96.

DXY 1-mean solar day candle chart. Source: TradingView

"The problem? Sentiment getting very extreme in fx state," annotator Helene Meisler warned on the weekend.

A turnaround for the unusually volatile DXY would conversely provide a examination of changed correlation to BTC.

Sentiment says "wait and see"

On the topic of market mood, within crypto, investors are on the fence.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, AVAX, MATIC, EGLD, MANA

The latest reading from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that despite short-term toll behavior, the market place is in fact entirely neutral.

At l/100, Fearfulness & Greed is exactly in the middle of its possible range of values, highlighting a lack of "extreme" sentiment.

This may human activity in Bitcoin's favor, with last calendar week's shakeout having driven sentiment back into "fear" territory from which it has now recovered.

Crypto Fear & Greed Alphabetize. Source: Culling.me

Contrast that with the traditional markets' Fright & Greed Alphabetize and the dichotomy is clear: "Extreme greed" characterized the latter at the previous shut, and at present, "greed" still remains.